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基于灰色残差GM(1,1)模型的汽油机油劣化状况预测
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南宁市科学研究与技术开发项目(20131078).


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    摘要:

    针对汽油机油性能指标测试数据存在离散程度较大,劣化状况难以预测且预测精确度低等问题,基于灰色系统理论,构建灰色残差GM(1,1)模型。以SL15W-40汽油机油为例,对所建立的预测模型的适用性及准确性进行研究。结果表明:灰色残差GM(1,1)模型具有较高的预测精度,应用于汽油机油劣化状况的预测结果与实际测量值基本吻合,为汽油机油劣化状况的预测和合理地确定换油周期提供一种新的有效方法。

    Abstract:

    Aimed at the problems that the test data of gasoline engine oil performance exist large discrete degree, the deterioration situation is difficult to predict, and the prediction accuracy is low, the gray residual model GM(1,1) was constructed according to grey systems theory to predict the gasoline engine oil deterioration situation. Taking the SL15W-40 gasoline engine oil as an example,the applicability and accuracy of constructed prediction model in prediction of lubricant deterioration situation was studied.The results show that the gray residual model GM(1,1) is practicable to predict the deterioration situation of gasoline engine oil, the prediction results are consistent with the actual measured values, and the prediction results have higher accuracy. Gray residual model GM(1,1) is a new effective method to predict the deterioration situation of gasoline engine oil, which can be used to determine the rational oil changing period of gasoline engine.

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蓝明新,经建芳,唐兴中,唐彩珍,黄福川.基于灰色残差GM(1,1)模型的汽油机油劣化状况预测[J].润滑与密封,2014,39(11):88-93.
.[J]. Lubrication Engineering,2014,39(11):88-93.

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  • 在线发布日期: 2015-04-21
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