Abstract:Aimed at the problems that the test data of gasoline engine oil performance exist large discrete degree, the deterioration situation is difficult to predict, and the prediction accuracy is low, the gray residual model GM(1,1) was constructed according to grey systems theory to predict the gasoline engine oil deterioration situation. Taking the SL15W-40 gasoline engine oil as an example,the applicability and accuracy of constructed prediction model in prediction of lubricant deterioration situation was studied.The results show that the gray residual model GM(1,1) is practicable to predict the deterioration situation of gasoline engine oil, the prediction results are consistent with the actual measured values, and the prediction results have higher accuracy. Gray residual model GM(1,1) is a new effective method to predict the deterioration situation of gasoline engine oil, which can be used to determine the rational oil changing period of gasoline engine.