Abstract:In order to get accurately wear prediction results of the sliding bearing in rotor system,based on theory of the Induced Ordered Weighted Geometric Averaging (IOWGA) operator combination forecasting method,a combination forecasting method combining the least squares support vector machine regression,the grey forecast and the exponential smoothing method was proposed,and a combined forecasting model of wear particle concentration of a rotor system and the evaluation index system were established.The experiment was carried out in the single span double disc rotor test rig,the concentration data of the wear debris of the sliding bearing on the iron spectrum were extracted,the wear particle concentration change trend was predicted by combination forecasting model,and the forecast results of the forecast model were compared.The results show that the combined forecasting model based on IOWGA operator posses higher prediction accuracy than the three single forecasting methods,which is an effective method to predict the particle concentration change trend in lubricating oil.