Based on the theory that the frictional self-excited vibration leads to rail corrugation,a finite element prediction model of the wheel-rail system with interference fit between wheel and axel was established by equivalent substitute fastening system through rail pad.The complex eigenvalue analysis method was used to analyze the frictional self-excited vibration of the wheel-rail system.The prediction result from the model as established was compared with that from the model that uses spring-damper pairs to simulate fasteners.It is found that the prediction result from the model as established is closer to the field test result.The influence of the friction coefficient and the equivalent elastic modulus of the rail pad on the prediction results of corrugation were studied by the controlled variable method.The simulation results show that when the friction coefficient is in the range of 0.2 to 0.6,the possibility of rail corrugation will increase with the increase of friction coefficient.When the vertical fastener stiffness is within the range of 50 MN/m to 100 MN/m,with the increase of fastener stiffness,that is,with the increase of equivalent elastic modulus of rail pad,the possibility of unstable vibration of system will decrease.The prediction result is consistent with the field measured result,which proves the effectiveness of the model.